Author Archives: proprietor

20 March Futures Commentary

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data! I recommend that you not trade futures at all. Among other things, you can lose more than your initial investment if you do so.

No new entry signals for our sample system today. We continue to have a sell condition in Fed Funds Futures; I think it is safe to say that Fed Fund Futures are in a bear market or close to it at this point. Our sample system only takes long positions, as I’ve determined that there is a greater expectation of profit on the upside than the downside, so I don’t recommend that you short Fed Funds. Interestingly the Federal Reserve has breathed new life in the Fed Funds markets, as volume as risen from a paltry 2000 or so contracts a day on average in the Summer of 2013 to a robust 90,000+ before the latest FOMC meeting results were released.

If we hadn’t been stopped out of Unleaded Gas it would be time to roll from April to May, but we don’t currently have a position in our hypothetical portfolio.




17 March Futures Commentary

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data, and I recommend that you not trade futures at all.

Yet another day with no new entry signals. We continue to have a sell condition in Fed Funds Futures, and we rolled our Lean Hog position from April to June contracts. We also had a sell signal in Unleaded Gas, a position we were stopped out of last month.

The two days since the Fed hiked interest rates have been pretty interesting, with large swings. I’m still not convinced that the markets are behaving sanely, but I think something closer to a “market” rate of interest will be healthy for the economy. Since QE3, the markets have been rising on what would traditionally be viewed as “bad” news, such as a poor jobs report, as I think that investors are expecting the Fed to ease and bolster stock prices. A rise in interest rates will probably bring more sanity back to the market.