Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data, and I recommend that you not trade futures at all.

The week started out with negative results for the hypothetical portfolio. Overall, the markets seem to lack much direction, and the stock indices seemed to be drifting lower. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a correction in these markets. The debt markets seem due for a bounce, which would certainly help out our portfolio, but only time will tell. Despite a higher open, Gold finished the day down, and Sugar also detracted from performance. Today, after several down days in a row for the system, is a good time to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. The performance since 1990 (not depicted) and the chart since 2010 should give some stamina to weather downturns. While painful, the last several days show how volatile futures trading can be, and how important risk management really is. While the rapid rise of the last month is intoxicating, psychologically, the last several days tend to drown out those feelings. It is important to remember that this is a long-term system. Keep your emotions out of play as much as possible, and trust your system.

There was an exit signal in Fed Fund futures.  The system hasn’t been long Fed Fund futures for some time. Note that exit signals are displayed even if no position is indicated.

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data, and I recommend that you not trade futures at all.

Friday was another day of large moves but with very little travel.  The hypothetical value of the account was slightly down after a larger loss on Thursday.  If the bond markets don’t have a bit of a rally we’ll probably get an exit signal this week.  However, I doubt we see that.  While I trade based on data and not predictions, it can be fun to try to predict the markets.  Generally this reinforces trend-following as a methodology, since I can’t seem to predict very well at all.  For example, I’ve been predicting that the stock market would fall for several years now but it certainly hasn’t as all-time highs keep falling.  And despite my expectations, if the system still detects a trend, I’m going to try to trade it even if I don’t expect it will continue.

There was an exit signal in Fed Fund futures.  The system hasn’t been long Fed Fund futures for some time.

The only new entry signal was for the S&P Midcap 400, a repeat of signals we’ve had this past week.