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3 March Futures Commentary

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data, and I recommend that you not trade futures at all.

Friday was another day of large moves but with very little travel.  The hypothetical value of the account was slightly down after a larger loss on Thursday.  If the bond markets don’t have a bit of a rally we’ll probably get an exit signal this week.  However, I doubt we see that.  While I trade based on data and not predictions, it can be fun to try to predict the markets.  Generally this reinforces trend-following as a methodology, since I can’t seem to predict very well at all.  For example, I’ve been predicting that the stock market would fall for several years now but it certainly hasn’t as all-time highs keep falling.  And despite my expectations, if the system still detects a trend, I’m going to try to trade it even if I don’t expect it will continue.

There was an exit signal in Fed Fund futures.  The system hasn’t been long Fed Fund futures for some time.

The only new entry signal was for the S&P Midcap 400, a repeat of signals we’ve had this past week.




2 March Futures Commentary

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data, and I recommend that you not trade futures at all.

Today the markets staged a wide pullback across many different sectors.  All of the positions in our hypothetical portfolio were down, except for sugar.  A continued pull back in bonds will likely result in sell signals in the next couple of trading days, if a rally doesn’t occur.

The lone buy signal for the day was a recurrence of the S&P Midcap 400 signal we’ve received the past couple of trading days.  Still trading the March contract, the stop would be 1667.65.

A quick note about position sizing.  This simulation is based on a notional account of $250,000.  The position quantities are based on risking 5% of the account on each trade, which leave a fairly wide stop.  This is important to avoid over concentrating our risk in any one commodity, while still allowing the market a fairly wide berth so we don’t get stopped out with minor moves against our positions.