Tag Archives: 10 Year Notes

30 March Futures Update

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data! I recommend that you not trade futures at all. Among other things, you can lose more than your initial investment if you do so.

Today the system received buy signals for 5-Year T-Notes and 10-Year T-Notes. The hypothetical system is already long both of these so as a position is already established, no new position is required. We also received sell signals in Fed Funds Futures, Soybean Meal and Sugar. The system closed the Soybean meal position on the open of Monday’s session and hasn’t had positions in sugar or fed funds in some time.

Overall we’re still up for the year, but down for the month of March after a promising start. The market is often fickle and harsh, and you need to have a plan that you can execute and stick with despite fluctuations. This is why I like to use a mathematical-based system that has entry signals and exit signals planned in advance that doesn’t require judgement in the heat of the moment to determine how to trade. Judgment is often swayed by emotion; after a significant win in the market, traders often tend to relax their strict execution of the plan because they’re now playing with “house money”, or winnings. However, the system is based on specific trading rules during good times, and bad. Traders often tend to abandon a system in despair when a draw down occurs. While tempting, sticking with the plan is the only way to have success trading, unless you hope to depend on that most fickle of mistresses, Lady Luck.




29 March Futures Update

Disclaimer- The following is presented for entertainment purposes only. Do not attempt to trade using this data! I recommend that you not trade futures at all. Among other things, you can lose more than your initial investment if you do so.

Today, as yesterday, the system received buy signals for 5-Year T-Notes and 10-Year T-Notes. The hypothetical system is already long both of these so as a position is already established, no new position is required. We also received sell signals in Fed Funds Futures, and Soybean Meal. The system closed the Soybean meal position on the open of Monday’s session and hasn’t had positions in crude or fed funds in some time.

The hypothetical portfolio was up a bit today, although it has been volatile as of late. The market seems to be unsure of itself, as political uncertainty and apparently-changing Federal Reserve Bank policy has led to uncertainty in the markets. I don’t know how to trade this market except to ride with the trend. Trend following has proven to be a long-term winner, although can be difficult in the short term, as evidenced by the first couple of weeks of March. However, if risk is managed correctly, trend following should yield consistent, if not immediate, results.